Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 12 2022 19:41:23 ACUS01 KWNS 121941 SWODY1 SPC AC 121939 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM WESTERN KS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TX... ....SUMMARY... Occasional damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible tonight from western Kansas across western/central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. ....20Z Update... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook remains valid. Rapid thunderstorm development is anticipated tonight around 04Z-06Z from western KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture will be limited but modest buoyancy is still anticipated given cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates. An initial discrete/supercell mode is possible for an hour or two before the mode then trends more linear. All severe hazards are possible with this initially discrete mode. Strong ascent, and close storm proximity is expected to foster a quick transition to a linear mode. Intense wind fields will result in fast storm motion, robust vertical shear, and large hodographs. As such, storms capable of damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes are possible. Modest thermodynamics are currently expected to preclude more widespread severe potential. ...Mosier.. 12/12/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022/ ....KS/OK/Northwest TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough rotating eastward across the western states, with an intense 100+ knot mid-level jet max moving into northwest Mexico. This jet will nose into the high plains of eastern NM/CO and western TX/OK/KS tonight. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 50s will spread into much of KS/OK/TX, with 60s as far north as the Red River. This will lead to rapid thunderstorm development after dark. By early evening, the surface dryline is forecast to extend from near AMA northward to west of GLD. Strong large scale forcing associated with the approaching upper jet will overspread the dryline after 03z, leading to rapid convective development. Initial storms will be in limited low-level moisture, but cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for a few intense storms capable of isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado or two. As the evening progresses and the low-level jet intensifies to 50+ knots, the storms along the dryline will become more widespread/organized. Linear convective structures capable of damaging wind gusts and embedded, brief tornadoes are expected. This activity will track eastward across much of western/south-central OK and western North TX through 12z Tuesday morning. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .