Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 12 2022 16:14:21

ACUS01 KWNS 121614
SWODY1
SPC AC 121612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM
WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS  WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Occasional damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes will be possible tonight from western Kansas across
western/central Oklahoma into northwest Texas.

....KS/OK/Northwest TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough rotating
eastward across the western states, with an intense 100+ knot
mid-level jet max moving into northwest Mexico.  This jet will nose
into the high plains of eastern NM/CO and western TX/OK/KS tonight.
Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 50s will spread into
much of KS/OK/TX, with 60s as far north as the Red River.  This will
lead to rapid thunderstorm development after dark.

By early evening, the surface dryline is forecast to extend from
near AMA northward to west of GLD.  Strong large scale forcing
associated with the approaching upper jet will overspread the
dryline after 03z, leading to rapid convective development.  Initial
storms will be in limited low-level moisture, but cold temperatures
aloft and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for a few intense
storms capable of isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado or
two.  As the evening progresses and the low-level jet intensifies to
50+ knots, the storms along the dryline will become more
widespread/organized.  Linear convective structures capable of
damaging wind gusts and embedded, brief tornadoes are expected.
This activity will track eastward across much of
western/south-central OK and western North TX through 12z Tuesday
morning.

...Hart/Bentley.. 12/12/2022

$$

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