Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 12 2022 12:50:52 ACUS01 KWNS 121250 SWODY1 SPC AC 121249 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM WESTERN KS TO NORTHWEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Occasional damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible tonight from western Kansas across western/central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. ....Western KS/western and central OK/northwest TX tonight... A deep midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin to the central/southern Rockies and the High Plains by early Tuesday. Substantial lee cyclogenesis is expected across eastern CO today as southwesterly flow aloft increasing over CO/NM, and this will help draw low-level moisture northward across the southern Plains through the end of the period. Likewise, a low-level jet will strengthen through tonight from north TX into KS, to the east of the deepening cyclone. The warm sector will likely remain rather cool with stratus through the day from west TX toward southwest KS. Thunderstorm development will become more probable near and after dark from the eastern TX Panhandle northward into western KS, as low-level moisture gradually increases beneath cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates. Forcing for ascent will also increase tonight as the primary midlevel height falls overspread the High Plains, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough/dryline. There will be a narrow zone where convection may be rooted near the surface, with wind profiles favorable for supercells (long hodographs with clockwise curvature in the low levels), and all hazards will be possible. Farther south, somewhat richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s) will spread as far north and southwest OK/northwest TX overnight. Forecast soundings across this area show MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg with diminishing SBCIN, coincident with very large/curved hodographs just ahead of the cold front. Expectations are for convection to form and evolve into a squall line along the cold front across southwest/central OK into northwest TX from 06-12z. Buoyancy rooted near/at the surface and the strong low-level shear both suggest the potential for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes with circulations embedded in the line. ...Thompson/Leitman.. 12/12/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .