Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 12 2022 08:27:06

FOUS30 KWBC 120827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 12 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 13 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

Strong height falls will be pushing eastward into the Central to
Southern Plains day 1, helping to strengthen the low level
southerly flow across much of the mid section of the nation.  The
resultant 850-700 mb moisture flux values are forecast to be very
anomalous across much of the Southern to Central Plains with
values 3 to 5+ standard deviations above the mean.   Strong
frontal convergence and favorable upper difluence in this
increasing moisture flux axis will support organized convective
development late in the day 1 period, mostly after 0300 utc
Tuesday across potions of the Southern to Central Plains, with
this line then pushing quickly downstream.  The marginal risk area
was drawn in the model consensus qpf axis and where the latest
HREF neighborhood probabilities are highest for 1"+ totals this
period.  1 hour HREF probabilities are fairly high for .50"+
amounts but drop off significantly for amounts over an inch.  This
is reflective of the likely progressive nature of potential
convective line and warrants a continuation of only a marginal
risk.  With respect to changes to the previous outlook for this
period, the eastern end was trimmed to the west by approximately
100 miles to reflect the above mention model qpf and probability
axes.

Oravec



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-YdfOLFIoDBRuYF6r4opEjwy5ZLMKGyeArLOtomRW6kE=
gvozZoxY_bB0g2BEGT2Oc6AJl2mECe7UAGciB7nkGs_uOJ8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-YdfOLFIoDBRuYF6r4opEjwy5ZLMKGyeArLOtomRW6kE=
gvozZoxY_bB0g2BEGT2Oc6AJl2mECe7UAGciB7nkSH5xDT8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-YdfOLFIoDBRuYF6r4opEjwy5ZLMKGyeArLOtomRW6kE=
gvozZoxY_bB0g2BEGT2Oc6AJl2mECe7UAGciB7nku0Hkzck$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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