Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 12 2022 07:05:18 ACUS02 KWNS 120705 SWODY2 SPC AC 120703 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Severe weather potential -- including tornadoes -- remains evident from parts of east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley area Tuesday and Tuesday night. ....Synopsis... A strong upper trough will move eastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains, while the embedded/deepening low moves northeastward out of the central High Plains into/across Nebraska through 14/12Z. At the surface, an occluding low is expected to take a similar northeastward track across Nebraska, while a trailing front crosses the Plains through the day. This front will continue eastward overnight, reaching the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys late. ....East Texas eastward to southern and western Mississippi... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing from the Mid Missouri Valley vicinity south-southwestward into central Texas. Limited severe risk should be ongoing, in the form of hail across parts of Oklahoma and low-end risk for strong gusts or even a tornado south of the Red River. As the front continues eastward with time through the afternoon, storms are forecast to increase in intensity -- with weak heating and a moist boundary layer contributing to modest surface-based CAPE. At this time, it appears that storms should be surface-based, or nearly so, south of the Red River/southern Arkansas. Here, very favorably strong shear -- veering and increasing substantially with height -- will favor rotating updrafts. By afternoon, a broken band of frontal storms is expected to be crossing western Arkansas/eastern Texas and the Arklatex area, where damaging winds and potential for tornadoes is evident. A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible -- especially with any isolated storms which can develop just ahead of the main convective band. Through the late afternoon/early evening and into the overnight hours, storms will continue moving toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, with the corridor for greatest damaging wind/tornado potential evident across northern and central Louisiana, and eventually extending into southwestern Mississippi overnight. ...Goss.. 12/12/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .