Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 12 2022 00:40:16

ACUS01 KWNS 120040
SWODY1
SPC AC 120038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms will remain negligible across the
U.S. through daybreak Monday and beyond.

....01Z Update...

....Eastern Gulf Coast region...
A substantive, but weakening, remnant cluster of thunderstorms
shifted offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas several
hours ago.  However, a wedge of moist boundary-layer air
characterized by very weak conditional instability remains inland of
eastern Gulf coastal areas, as far north as southern Mississippi and
southern Alabama.  It is possible that weak low-level warm
advection, in advance of a short wave trough now digging
east-southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, could still
support some convection capable of producing lightning this evening
into the overnight hours.

....Pacific Coast into Great Basin...
Beneath cold air associated with large-scale mid-level troughing
slowly digging inland of the Pacific coast, destabilization has been
sufficient to support occasional widely scattered weak thunderstorm
activity.  Although this continues, to some extent, across parts of
the southern Great Basin and interior valleys of California, the
risk for additional development across these areas is expected to
become increasingly negligible through 01-02Z with the loss of
insolation.  However, forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous
digging short wave impulse may support a risk for weak thunderstorm
activity near central into southern California coastal areas later
this evening into the overnight hours.

...Kerr.. 12/12/2022

$$

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