Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 09:51:13

ACUS48 KWNS 110951
SWOD48
SPC AC 110949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain in reasonable agreement Days 4-5
(Wednesday and Thursday), during which time a cold front will be
crossing the southeastern U.S. and eventually moving offhsore.

Ahead of this front, some severe risk continues to appear possible
across the central Gulf Coast region Day 4/Wednesday.  Questions
continue with respect to how far northward a warm/moist boundary
layer will be able to advance into Alabama, though the latest run of
the ECMWF is a bit more bullish than past runs.  Still, with the
antecedent presence of a damming airmass/wedge front apparent across
northern portions of Georgia and Alabama, will not expand the risk
appreciably northward at this time.

Farther south however, where favorable shear and a moist -- and at
least modestly unstable -- airmass is likely, risk for damaging
winds and a couple of tornadoes remains evident.

Day 5/Thursday, the front is progged to cross Georgia and the
Carolinas, while drifting more slowly southward across Florida.
With indications of even lesser instability across the Georgia
vicinity, and convergence diminishing along the front as it sags
across Florida, severe potential appears too low to warrant an areal
inclusion.

With the front progged to have cleared the entire U.S. by early Day
6, and broadly cyclonic flow aloft seemingly likely to remain over
the U.S. through the remainder of the medium range, severe weather
is not expected in the Day 6 to 8 time frame.

...Goss.. 12/11/2022

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