Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 08:40:11 ACUS03 KWNS 110840 SWODY3 SPC AC 110839 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN TEXAS TO FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Severe weather potential -- including tornadoes -- remains evident from parts of east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley area Tuesday and Tuesday night. ....Synopsis... An upper low -- and associated/broad belt of fast cyclonic flow -- is forecast to move gradually northeastward out of the central High Plains across northwestern Kansas and Nebraska with time. As this occurs, a deep/occluding surface low is forecast to take a similar track, as an occluded/cold front sweeps across the Kansas and the southern Plains through the day, eventually reaching the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley overnight. This front will focus widespread showers and thunderstorms -- and potential for severe weather south of the Ozarks. ....Portions of eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms -- and possibly limited severe risk -- will be ongoing at the start of the period, across portions of central Texas. Strong southerly flow ahead of the advancing from will continue to advect Gulf moisture northward, though widespread elevated convection to the north will likely tend to hinder more robust northward advance of the true warm sector. With that said, minimal heating combined with the moist low levels will result in modest CAPE increases through the day, with storms moving across east Texas expected to gradually intensify in response. Given very favorable shear -- veering and increasing substantially with height -- rotating updrafts are expected -- both with the primary, likely-to-be-linear band of storms, and any more isolated cells which may develop ahead of the main band. Along with risk for damaging winds, tornado risk should also gradually increase with time. As storms move into southern Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon, the most favorable combination of CAPE/shear should exist. Along with an ongoing wind and local tornado risk within the band, potential for a few strong tornadoes is also likely to evolve as storms progress eastward through the afternoon. During the evening and overnight, risk is expected to reach/cross the Delta region and Lower Mississippi Valley. Modest CAPE -- mainly as a result of a moist boundary layer -- and the strongly sheared kinematic environment should support wind/tornado potential through the overnight period. ...Goss.. 12/11/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .