Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2002
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 07:05:11

ACUS11 KWNS 110705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110704=20
TXZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110704Z - 110900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the overnight hours. The overall threat is expected to
remain limit in intensity/longevity and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are ongoing
along a southeastward-advancing cold front from central into
southeast TX. Overall, the environment will marginally support
transient supercells with effective shear values around 25-30 kt
amid modest instability and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates.
Weak low-level flow and storms perhaps becoming undercut by the cold
front as convection trains toward the east/northeast will largely
limit more widespread potential. Nevertheless, a strong storm could
briefly become severe, producing hail and locally strong gusts
through early morning. Given the limit and transient nature of the
threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected.

...Leitman/Thompson.. 12/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7FinmmtzrMTdIUnqu7CLn4oO8hdIU8lg0elEYXijM39XP-XU0_0IJ0d5NFwc7W4hn2XaDgm7E=
B4Hg_dBCCpaebg_rn4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28779715 28729775 28909822 29219842 29519828 29959752
            30259684 30519579 30479514 30169498 29889505 29629528
            29509552 28989661 28779715=20


=3D =3D =3D
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