Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 07:02:39

ACUS02 KWNS 110702
SWODY2
SPC AC 110701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
KANSAS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Overnight convection may be accompanied by limited severe potential
across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma and into North Texas.

....Synopsis...
A deep upper low/trough is forecast to shift steadily eastward
across the western half of the U.S. Monday, emerging into the High
Plains by Tuesday morning.  As this occurs, a ridge is expected to
progress eastward with time ahead of the advancing western system,
shifting across the Mississippi Valley to extend from the Upper
Great Lakes southward to the central Gulf Coast late.

At the surface, cyclogenesis is expected across the central High
Plains vicinity by evening, with a low forecast to consolidate along
an advancing cold front.  By 12Z Tuesday, expect a deep/occluding
low to reside over the western Kansas vicinity, with a cold front
extending from triple point in the Oklahoma vicinity, southward
central portions of Texas.

....Western and central Kansas vicinity southward into western North
Texas...
As mid-level height falls spread across the central and southern
Plains ahead of the approaching upper system, development of showers
and thunderstorms will occur -- owing to increasing ascent combined
with steepening lapse rates aloft aiding in ample CAPE development.

Most of the instability will remain relatively shallow, atop a
stable boundary layer.  Still, some severe potential is evident,
mainly during latter stages of the period and largely in the form of
hail.

From roughly the Red River southward into central Texas, a narrow
corridor of surface-based CAPE may evolve late, as has been hinted
at by models for several runs.  Within this small area, a strong
gust or two, or even a brief tornado, cannot be ruled out with an
anticipated, near-surface-based QLCS crossing the area through the
end of the period.

...Goss.. 12/11/2022

$$

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