Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 04:18:16

AWUS01 KWNH 110418
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022

Areas affected...South-central to Southeast Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110415Z - 110900Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving efficient thunderstorms with 2"/hr rates
pose scattered flash flooding risk overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes a sharpening northern stream
shortwave digging south-southeast across central TX though also
shows favorable dual jet large scale ascent pattern south and east
of this wave.  While best right exit divergence of the
sub-tropical jet is centered across South Texas, it still sits in
good proximity to the DPVA from the digging shortwave and the left
entrance to the associated polar jet streak over E TX.  This is
spurring a weak surface wave in proximity of San Antonio at the
inflection of the low level higher theta-E/moisture surge off the
Gulf of Mexico.

This moisture enhancement is best denoted in the CIRA LPW
sfc-850mb layer.  While convergence is weak given the backed
low/mid-level flow (per EWX VWP), the upper level support and
unstable air mass is supporting weak vertical ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development.  While not particularly broad strong at
this time, the southward pushing cold front associated with the
northern stream shortwave is going to sharpen and be more
orthogonal to strengthening sfc to boundary layer flow through the
early morning.  As such, coverage of thunderstorms is expected to
increase while having ample moisture to produce efficient warm
cloud rainfall processes up to 2"/hr.  This weak flow is expecte
to veer into the confluence zone ahead of the shortwave expanding
toward the Houston metro.  Cell motions will be toward the
northeast and slow with propagation toward the southeast.  This
should allow for scattered pockets of 2-3" totals mostly coming in
short duration through 09z.  This evolution has been gaining
confidence based on recent 00z Hi-Res Cams and rapid refresh HRRR
solutions, suggesting widely scattered flash flooding/rapid
inundation is possible through the early morning hours along and
south of I-10, with higher probability due to better synoptic
forcing and coverage further east within the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4nzvO4iE5KNw3GaFc-3gQNZURDaMWmY5685yp6eoidcaCqENKiTXjy8mawOkyptGrejf=
YkIL-o9vOoGIFLaLM9YtFkc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30899534 30789452 30149439 29729542 29349654=20
            28929749 28769839 29189863 29619833 30079767=20
            30659654=20

=3D =3D =3D
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