Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2001
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 02:34:08

ACUS11 KWNS 110234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110233=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-110430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

Areas affected...southeast Texas...southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110233Z - 110430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional marginal supercell structure will probably
continue to be observed through this evening.  The weak low-level
shear --observed currently and forecast to remain so-- will likely
negate/limit a severe risk with this activity.

DISCUSSION...KHGX radar imagery this evening has shown marginal to
weak supercell structure over southeast TX within a weak low-level
warm-air advection regime over the northwest Gulf Coast.  Surface
conditions are very moist with temperatures around 70 deg F and
upper 60s to 70 deg F dewpoints.  The 00z (6pm CST) Lake Charles, LA
raob showed weak buoyancy (800 J/kg MLCAPE) with a weak but veering
low-level wind profile per KHGX VAD data.  Observed storm motion for
the San Jacinto County, TX supercell (as of 0225 UTC/825pm CST)
indicates an implied 50-75 m2/s2 0-0.5 km SRH.  Given the lack of a
feature that would lead to a strengthening of low-level flow and
enlarging of the hodograph, the current expectation is for several
weak supercells to develop across southeast TX through the evening.=20
A brief/weak tornado or pocket of wind damage associated with an RFD
cannot be entirely ruled out.  The mesoscale environmental potential
will likely greatly limit and/or negate a severe risk with this
activity.  Nonetheless, conditions will continue to be monitored
this evening.

...Smith/Grams.. 12/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7mGb3CRpl394ttEtLd1sAWCYuomg0AYFXyoD_D_qVOPuulSUcR_CcWMr3PmDjOxaxCFE1C8og=
NYtGdypunn8TKwRJNs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30369579 31079459 31169366 30549307 29909305 29839343
            30149406 30409469 30209541 30369579=20


=3D =3D =3D
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