Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 11 2022 00:42:40 ACUS01 KWNS 110042 SWODY1 SPC AC 110040 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact areas inland of the southeast Texas into southern Louisiana Gulf coast tonight, and pose at least some risk for severe weather. ....01Z Update... ....Northwest Gulf coastal plain vicinity... Lift to the cool side of a southward advancing surface front continues to support scattered, generally weak thunderstorms across portions of northern Mississippi and southern Arkansas, through northeastern and central Texas (as far west as the Edwards Plateau vicinity). This activity may continue another few hours, but as the cold front advances southward and an upstream short wave impulse progresses across and east of the Texas Big Bend vicinity, various model output suggests that a corridor inland of the southeast Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast will become the primary focus for thunderstorm development later this evening/overnight. Thunderstorms have already been developing across southeast Texas along an apparent weak low-level convergence zone (which extends into southern Louisiana), aided by inflow of weak to moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg. As forcing for ascent increases later this evening, a substantive further increase in convection is possible. Although lower-level wind fields (through the 850-700 mb layer) are, and will remain, rather weak, deep-layer shear beneath west-southwesterly 500 mb flow around 40 kt may be sufficient to support an organizing cluster or two, which could eventually pose a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. ....California... Some thunderstorm activity has developed near/north of Merced, within a southeastward advancing frontal precipitation band. Occasional thunderstorm activity may continue southward through the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent western slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada into tonight. However, despite strong deep-layer mean wind fields (and potentially strong shear), very weak pre-frontal destabilization still appears likely to minimize the risk for severe storms. Otherwise, strong post-frontal mid-level cooling (including 500 mb temps falling below -28 C) may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support additional scattered thunderstorm activity across and perhaps inland of northern into central California coastal areas late tonight. ...Kerr.. 12/11/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .