Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1999
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 10 2022 20:06:08

ACUS11 KWNS 102006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102005=20
TXZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

Areas affected...Southwest/North/Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102005Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of hail possible this
afternoon and evening across southwest, central, and north TX.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from about
20 miles south of PRX southwestward across north-central TX to about
40 miles north of SJT. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing
in the vicinity of this front, with all of the activity thus far
remaining north of the front. This trend is expected to continue,
given the progressive nature of the front and persistent low to
mid-level southwesterly flow.=20

Modest buoyancy and shear are in place, with mesoanalysis currently
estimating MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear around
40-50 kt. Regional VADs sampled similar vertical shear, including 44
kt of 0-6 km bulk shear at FWS. Daytime heating has been stunted by
cloud cover, but some filtered heating has occurred helping push
temperatures into the mid 70s. Given these conditions, there appears
to be a limited opportunity for a few stronger updrafts capable of
hail during the next several hours. Coverage of any severe hail
should remain isolated and relatively brief.

...Mosier/Hart.. 12/10/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_hIc34e3d-436bBBafmr28BxDxN22za42rM2vWNAl-P4bJkVO2Kffghz9U0d2hiM88Uj9bD0Z=
wluxEDhDhD70j5Kpwk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31900126 32929821 33469561 33229505 32419546 31729719
            31369887 31070058 31230114 31900126=20


=3D =3D =3D
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