Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 10 2022 16:13:06

ACUS01 KWNS 101613
SWODY1
SPC AC 101611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight from
central Texas to western Louisiana.

....TX/LA...
Strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today from northern
Mexico into the lower MS Valley.  At the surface, a quasi-stationary
boundary extends across the same area, extending from north-central
TX into southern AR.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to affect areas along this front throughout the forecast
period, as the front sags slowly southward tonight.  There is low
risk of hail in the strongest storms this afternoon along or north
of the front, but limited elevated CAPE should preclude a more
organized risk.

Later tonight, most CAM solutions show a few discrete cells forming
in the open warm sector over southeast TX as a shortwave trough
approaches.  Sufficient moisture and CAPE will be present for
rotating storms, but low-level flow/shear will be relatively weak,
suggesting just a Marginal risk of a tornado or damaging wind gust.

...Hart/Dean.. 12/10/2022

$$

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