Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 10 2022 08:33:04

ACUS03 KWNS 100832
SWODY3
SPC AC 100831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Overnight convection may be accompanied by limited severe potential
across parts of southern and eastern Oklahoma and into North Texas.

....Synopsis...
As an upper trough, and embedded/large/deepening low emerges from
the Rockies into the Plains during the period, an evolving/deep
surface low is forecast to move out of the central Plains, and into
Nebraska overnight.  As this occurs, a strong cold front is forecast
to advance across the central and southern Plains, reaching eastern
Kansas, central Oklahoma and central Texas by late in the period.

Downstream, ridging -- both surface and aloft -- will prevail over
most of the eastern U.S., though a deep, southwestward-retrograding
upper low will affect the Canadian Maritimes and northern New
England through the period.

....Oklahoma/North Texas...
As height falls associated with the advancing upper trough/low
spread across the southern Plains, the associated cold front
sweeping across Oklahoma and northern/western Texas should focus
sufficient ascent to permit thunderstorm development to occur during
the late evening, and particularly overnight.  While cooling
aloft/steepening lapse rates will likely support appreciable CAPE
(500 to 1000 J/kg), a slightly stable warm-sector boundary layer is
expected to persist, meaning that storms should remain elevated.  As
such, primary severe potential appears to be hail with a couple of
the strongest storms -- generally in the inch to inch-and-a-half
range.  Any tornado or wind risk would depend upon boundary-layer
destabilization, which appears unlikely at this time.

...Goss.. 12/10/2022

$$

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