Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 10 2022 05:53:32 ACUS01 KWNS 100553 SWODY1 SPC AC 100551 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast this morning into early Sunday. ....Synopsis... Within mostly zonal mid-level flow, several shortwave troughs are forecast to traverse the CONUS today and tonight. Early this morning, the first shortwave over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will shift eastward toward the Great Lakes and southern Canada. To the southwest, a second southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move out of northern Mexico and across the southern Plains this afternoon into early Sunday. A third trough is forecast to move onto the Pacific Coast with a few lightning flashes. In response to the departure of the first trough and the approach of the second, a surface cold front draped over the southern Plains is forecast to move south toward the Gulf of Mexico. Increasing convergence and a moist airmass to the south will support sufficient lift and buoyancy for deep convection through much of the day across portions of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. ....Southern Plains to Gulf Coast... To the north of the surface cold front, widespread elevated convection is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions northern TX and southern OK. Driven primarily by low-level warm advection beneath a modest low-level jet, these storms should gradually decay through the morning hours as they move to the north/northeast. At the same time, the surface front is forecast to slowly drift south in response to increasing cold advection in the wake of the departing shortwave. Along the western edge of the front across west-central TX, subtle lift from the approaching southern-stream trough and increasing convergence will likely support additional storm development through mid to late morning. Hi-res guidance shows these storms expanding in coverage along and north of the front from roughly Midland toward the Metroplex through the evening hours. Area RAP soundings show approximately 500-750 J/Kg of MUCAPE and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt potentially supporting marginal severe hail with elevated multicell/weak supercell clusters. Convection should slowly shift south with the surface front into central TX overnight. Farther south across the open warm sector, weak low-level flow and limited surface convergence should keep storm coverage minimal through the day. Forcing for ascent from the approaching southern stream trough and cold front will likely arrive later in the evening and overnight hours. Hi-res guidance shows the increased ascent potentially supporting isolated near-surface-based storm development from central/south TX into far southwestern LA. With modestly curved low-level hodographs and sufficient buoyancy, a low-end risk for damaging wind gusts and or a brief/weak tornado may develop ahead of the advancing front overnight tonight into early Sunday. ...Lyons/Kerr.. 12/10/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .