Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 10 2022 00:56:32 ACUS01 KWNS 100055 SWODY1 SPC AC 100053 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ....Pacific Coast vicinity... The westerlies are undergoing substantive amplification across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. This includes digging large-scale mid-level troughing, generally offshore of the U.S./British Columbia coast through 12Z Saturday. The latest Rapid Refresh might be among the more aggressive guidance indicating the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling, supportive of thermodynamic dynamic profiles conducive to low-topped convection capable of producing lightning, reaching southwestern Oregon/northwestern California coast toward the end of the period. Based on latest satellite imagery and lightning detection data, this seems possible, but with generally low probabilities/sparse coverage. ....Southern Great Plains... Large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow will generally be maintained east of the Rockies, within one branch of westerlies across the southern tier of the U.S. However, one smaller-scale short wave perturbation is progressing northeastward and eastward through this regime, across the southern Great Plains, as a much more prominent short wave trough within another branch advances across/northeast of the northern Rockies. Timed favorably with an increasing moist southerly return flow, associated forcing for ascent is contributing to sufficient destabilization to support a recent increase in convection capable of producing lightning across southwestern into central Oklahoma. This convection is rooted within warm advection above a residual cool/stable near surface layer, and likely will remain so as it spreads toward the Ozark Plateau overnight, with negligible risk for severe weather. ...Kerr.. 12/10/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .