Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 09 2022 19:35:30

ACUS01 KWNS 091935
SWODY1
SPC AC 091933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2022

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday.

....20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous forecast. Thunderstorms are still
expected tonight from the eastern TX Panhandle into OK as well as
along the northwest California/southwest Oregon coast. See previous
discussion below for more forecast details.

...Mosier.. 12/09/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022/

....Synopsis...
Several mid-level shortwave troughs are present amid a progressive
mid-level pattern across the western two-thirds of the CONUS. A
weakening mid-level trough will advance across the southern Great
Lakes through the day today with a larger trough advancing across
the Rockies in its wake. Additionally, another trough is approaching
the West Coast which will bring moderate/heavy valley rain and
mountain snow.

As the mid-level trough over the Great Basin this morning advances
into the Plains tonight, a low-level jet is expected to strengthen
across the southern High Plains. As warm air advection strengthens
and moisture increases, expect thunderstorms to develop across
Oklahoma, mostly after 03Z and expand east-northeastward through the
overnight period and into Saturday morning.

Thunderstorm chances will increase along the northwest California/
southwest Oregon coast after 06Z as the trough advances east and
colder air aloft overspreads relatively moist low level conditions.
These thunderstorms may start to spread further inland closer to 12Z
as the upper-level trough continues to advance east.

$$

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