Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 09 2022 17:16:57 ACUS02 KWNS 091716 SWODY2 SPC AC 091715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains from Saturday morning into early Sunday morning. ....Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from northwest Mexico/southern AZ eastward through the southern High Plans and much of the southern Plains on Saturday. At the same time, an upper low is forecast to drop southward to the Pacific Northwest Coast as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through its western and southern periphery. An additional shortwave should move from the northern Plains eastward through the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, moisture return is anticipated across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley ahead of the approaching southern-stream shortwave. A surface low will likely be centered over south-central OK early Saturday, before then pushing eastward across southeast OK and southern AR. As it does, an associated cold front is expected to progress gradually southeastward across TX. Resulting increasing buoyancy coupled with strengthening wind fields and lift will contribute to some severe risk across the southern Plains. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible from the southwest OR coast into central CA and west-central NV where cold mid-level temperatures and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent will align. ....Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across central and eastern OK early Saturday, north of the low and attendant cold front. These showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish as the low-level jet weakens, with additional activity expected to develop farther west in the vicinity of the front across southwest/south-central OK and north TX. Much of this activity will be elevated north of the front, but instability and shear are expected to be strong enough to support a low-probability hail threat. Isolated thunderstorm development within the warm sector is possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning as the shortwave moves closer and large-scale ascent strengthens. Southerly/southeasterly surface winds will result in curved low-level hodographs, but the overall magnitude will remain low due to modest low-level flow. Even so, a few more organized storms are possible, with an attendant threat of damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado. ...Mosier.. 12/09/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .