Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 09 2022 08:16:48

FOUS30 KWBC 090816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Fri Dec 09 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 09 2022 - 12Z Sat Dec 10 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM FAR
SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

Model guidance remains consistent with the arrival of an
atmospheric river event into coastal Oregon and northwest
California after 0000 UTC Sat ahead of the amplifying mid to upper
level trof off the Pac NW coast.  850-700 mb moisture flux
anomalies of 2 to 2.5+ standard deviations expected to sink
southeastward across these areas.  HREF hourly probabilities of
..50"+ are high...60-80%... in this anomalous moisture flux
axis..especially after 0500 utc Sat.  Probabilities for 1"+ hourly
amounts are much lower, topping out at near 30% in very small
areas 0600-1200 utc Sat.   The axis of anomalous onshore flow will
be fairly progressive to the southeast.  This and only slightly
above average precip values over the  past week for northwest
California will keep the risk level at marginal at best.  There
were no significant changes from the previous outlook for this
period.

Oravec



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9s4DIqPiZORaWTNAKWvrY7z4ETykDOuAtZalkEUW05Mv=
bG3a_JJty4eedbuKhtcjc3dIVo2r1xmzlyIBbOLtzLo2fy0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9s4DIqPiZORaWTNAKWvrY7z4ETykDOuAtZalkEUW05Mv=
bG3a_JJty4eedbuKhtcjc3dIVo2r1xmzlyIBbOLtc79x9Ho$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9s4DIqPiZORaWTNAKWvrY7z4ETykDOuAtZalkEUW05Mv=
bG3a_JJty4eedbuKhtcjc3dIVo2r1xmzlyIBbOLt0qgPVfU$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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