Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 09 2022 05:40:52

ACUS01 KWNS 090540
SWODY1
SPC AC 090539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not forecast across the U.S. on Friday.

....Discussion...

Stubborn upper ridge remains anchored over the Gulf of Mexico late
this evening. This feature is forecast to move little into the day2
period and will continue to deflect short waves across the
southwestern US, arcing across the middle of the country into the OH
Valley region. One notable short-wave trough will approach NM/far
west TX late in the period, and this should encourage a
strengthening LLJ across the southern Plains during the latter half
of the period. Surface front that is currently draped from northern
AL-Arklatex-north-central TX will likely advance a bit north in
response to the approaching short wave and strengthening LLJ. While
higher-PW air mass should oscillate with frontal movement, forecast
soundings do not depict appreciable instability.  Nevertheless,
buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for lightning with deeper
convection. At this time it appears warm advection will be the
primary forcing mechanism for elevated convection north of the
boundary. Greatest concentration of lightning should be noted with
convection that develops across the southern Plains after 10/00z.

A few flashes of lightning may also be noted with scattered
convection that spreads inland along the southern OR/northern CA
Coast late in the period. Latest guidance suggests a pronounced
short-wave trough will approach the CA Coast by the end of the
period, and a few elevated thunderstorms may evolve ahead of the
front within a very strong warm advection regime.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 12/09/2022

$$

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