Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 09 2022 00:50:50

ACUS01 KWNS 090050
SWODY1
SPC AC 090049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday.

....01z Update...

Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably into the day2
period, as a dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf
of Mexico. This feature will continue to deflect more significant
short waves across the southern Rockies into the middle of the
country, then into the OH Valley, where their influence will be
mostly well north of potentially buoyant air. While a flash or two
of lightning can not be ruled out ahead of a short-wave trough over
the mid MS Valley this evening, the primary risk for an isolated
thunderstorm continues near the frontal zone from north-central TX
into the western TN Valley. 00z soundings along/south of the front
exhibited minimal instability at FWD and SHV where MUCAPE was
roughly 500-800 J/kg. Warm advection will continue to be the primary
forcing mechanism for deep convection along this corridor.

A few flashes of lightning may also be noted with scattered showers
spreading inland along the WA/OR Coast. This activity is low-topped
and lightning should remain sparse.

...Darrow.. 12/09/2022

$$

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