Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 08 2022 12:43:17

ACUS01 KWNS 081243
SWODY1
SPC AC 081241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm threat appears negligible through early Friday.

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will progress generally eastward from CO
to the middle MS Valley by early Friday, and this primary trough
will be preceded by a low-amplitude speed max that will move from KS
to the lower OH Valley by this evening.  The path of the midlevel
trough will be offset to the north of a stalled surface front
extending from north TX to TN, which is consistent with only weak
cyclogenesis/low-level mass response.  As such, low-level warm
advection and forcing for ascent will be relatively weak along the
stalled front, where buoyancy is likewise expected to remain weak.
As a result, thunderstorm coverage/intensity will remain rather low
through the period.  Farther north, elevated buoyancy will remain
quite marginal, with only sparse lightning flashes possible in the
zone of stronger forcing for ascent with the main shortwave trough.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 12/08/2022

$$

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