Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 08 2022 08:31:49

ACUS03 KWNS 080831
SWODY3
SPC AC 080830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe-weather risk is not apparent over the U.S. on
Saturday.

....Discussion...
While westerly low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail through
Saturday/Saturday night across the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.,
amplification of troughing over the far western states will
continue, as eastern Pacific short-wave energy continues digging
southeastward.

At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone will remain in place from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, which will again focus showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms.  Severe weather is largely not
expected across this region.  However, showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm may begin to develop late in the period across the
Texas Coastal Plain and vicinity, as warm advection increases in
response to the beginning of weak height falls aloft.  Though storms
would likely be slightly elevated above a weakly stable boundary
layer, a non-zero risk for a stronger storm could evolve late, if
the boundary layer stability is minimal.  Still, any risk -- given
modest CAPE and marginal shear that would likely exist -- is too low
for consideration of a risk area at this time.

...Goss.. 12/08/2022

$$

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