Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 08 2022 06:24:57 AWUS01 KWNH 080624 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1145 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 124 AM EST Thu Dec 08 2022 Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southern to Eastern OK...Northwest AR... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 080625Z - 081200Z SUMMARY...Solid moisture flux convergence and deeper layer for training pose possible low-end flooding concerns through early morning.=20 DISCUSSION...There is a narrow window in time for favorable convective development capable of up to .5"/15 minutes with some upstream redevelopment within a favorable environment for repeating/training. This may result in stripes of 1.5-2" totals in 1-2 hours leading to low-end flooding concerns.=20=20 GOES-E WV denotes an elongated shortwave across the TX/OK panhandles interacting with the tail end of a nicely anticyclonically curved jet structure. The combination of right entrance ascent paired with the DPVA is spurring broad scale ascent while concurrently maintaining a persistently strong LLJ that is favorably confluent across the area of concern (particularly at 925-85H). The 850mb front is well denoted with strong convergence with 10kts of westerlies per VWP at FDR and OKC becoming confluent with 25-30kts of SSWly flow from the northern TX sites. Weak but still maximized elevated instability layer concurrently aligned with the convergence with up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE is starting to develop scattered but stronger updrafts and tops cooling to -55C occasionally. Total PWat values of 1.5 to 1.6" in combination with the convergence supports fairly efficient rainfall production with HRRR 15 minute rainfall totals up to .7" which is supported by observations of similar .5"-.6" values across SW OK.=20 With the stronger confluent upstream flow and upper level support discussed above, should support redevelopment for a few hours before the pool of instability is exhausted (below 200 J/kg).=20 This may allow for repeating cells and 1.5-2.5" totals to manifest. These totals at just slightly below the 1 and 3hr FFG values and given 0-40cm relative soil (RSM) conditions are 35-50% across much of southwest and southern OK, flash flooding risk is likely limited to urban flooding. However, there is a slightly higher possibility of flooding due to terrain interaction and slightly more saturated ground conditions of of E OK/NW AR, where RSM are 50-65%, and have seen recent rains over the last few hours to further increase them. Unfortunately, the environment is further from the better upstream instability, likely limiting the flashy/rapid inundation nature to the flooding risk. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!89wTVxBb3_xdn8zmFaoRyYaiEKzykoVTYjCPSNOF7yEkW6Nm6jV9hqC54eHWLh40Q-uM= QN-eq-XvfJN0k6c9_GC9U4M$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36179248 35359242 34999344 34689464 34229593=20 33729756 33469847 33649911 34319883 35329684=20 35829495=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .