Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 08 2022 05:37:14

ACUS01 KWNS 080537
SWODY1
SPC AC 080535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Wed Dec 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm threat appears negligible Thursday.

....Discussion...

Upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico
into this weekend. This dominant feature will force transient short
waves to eject across the southern Rockies, through the central
Plains into the OH Valley. Minimal height changes will be noted at
low latitudes, and a slowly oscillating frontal zone will remain the
primary focus for potential convection through the period.

While PW anomalies will remain above normal around the
western-northern periphery of the upper ridge, forecast buoyancy is
small, especially across the warm sector. In the absence of
meaningful short-wave forcing, low-level warm advection will likely
continue to be the primary driving mechanism for elevated convection
north of the front. Forecast instability does not appear adequate to
support severe thunderstorms Thursday.

Otherwise, a few flashes of lighting may accompany low-topped
convection in association with cooling profiles along the Pacific
Northwest Coast. Latest model guidance suggests a strong short-wave
trough will approach the coast around 09/00z, and this may
contribute to deeper updrafts with a greater propensity for
lightning.

...Darrow/Moore.. 12/08/2022

$$

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