Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 07 2022 19:54:42

ACUS01 KWNS 071954
SWODY1
SPC AC 071952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Wed Dec 07 2022

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 12/07/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Wed Dec 07 2022/

....Discussion...
Around the northwest periphery of the persistent mid-upper ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico, a shortwave trough over the Great Basin
will eject eastward to the southern Rockies. A cool air mass
entrenched from much of OK and northwest TX northward will yield
muted lee cyclogenesis downstream of the ejecting trough, such that
the surface baroclinic zone will move little from north TX to the TN
Valley through tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly through this
afternoon, along the front from the Mid-South into the
TN Valley, and over the Four Corners vicinity in association with
the Great Basin trough. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely this
evening into tonight as low-level warm theta-e advection strengthens
from west TX towards the Ozarks. Much of this activity should remain
on the cool side of the baroclinic zone. Marginal mid-level lapse
rates resulting in weak elevated buoyancy should preclude
appreciable severe potential.

$$

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