Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 06 2022 16:31:03

ACUS01 KWNS 061630
SWODY1
SPC AC 061629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF KY/TN...

....SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm or two is possible this evening across western
portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.

....Western KY/TN vicinity...
Boundary-layer dewpoints into the mid 60s are present south of a
warm front that extends from central AR to southern TN. The warm
front should make some northward progress into western KY by this
evening ahead of a weak wave over the Ozarks. Clouds will remain
pervasive, but occasional breaks should help boost MLCAPE to between
500-750 J/kg. The bulk of convective development this evening should
be focused within the warm conveyor regime ahead of the frontal wave
and north of the surface warm front. Still, there are some
indications for convection to backbuild southwestward into the warm
sector over a portion of western KY/TN. Moderate low-level hodograph
curvature in conjunction with a relatively elongated/straight-line
mid to upper-level hodograph would be conditionally supportive of
low-end supercell development. While it is plausible that severe
storms may ultimately fail to materialize, there appears to be
enough signal to warrant a low probability for a brief tornado and
locally damaging winds.

...Grams/Squitieri.. 12/06/2022

$$

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