Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 06 2022 12:43:07

ACUS01 KWNS 061242
SWODY1
SPC AC 061241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Modest height rises are expected over the Gulf of Mexico and South,
while an upstream midlevel trough moves inland over CA/NV with the
potential for isolated thunderstorms.  In between, a belt of
southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained from AZ/NM to the Great
Lakes/OH Valley.  At the surface, a weak wave is expected to move
northeastward along slow-moving front from eastern OK to the lower
OH Valley, and this weak low and front will help focus thunderstorm
development through tonight.

....Mid-South through tonight...
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are present south of the front
from northeast TX to the Mid-South, and the warm sector should make
a little northward progress toward western KY in advance of the weak
wave.  Clouds will be pervasive through the day and inhibit surface
heating along the front, which will tend to limit MLCAPE to around
500-750 J/kg.  There is a small window of opportunity for
near-surface-based convection along the front from northeast AR to
western TN later this afternoon/evening.  Deep-layer vertical shear
will be sufficient for supercells with relatively long hodographs
and some low-level hodograph curvature.  However, the weak buoyancy
and relatively weak forcing for ascent suggest that any threat for
wind damage or a brief tornado is too low to warrant an outlook
area.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 12/06/2022

$$

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