Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 06 2022 08:34:19

ACUS03 KWNS 060833
SWODY3
SPC AC 060832

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe weather still appears unlikely on Thursday.

....Discussion...
Models continue to depict continued east-northeastward advance of a
deamplifying short-wave trough across the central Plains, that
should reach the Mid Mississippi Valley region overnight.  As this
feature advances, modest surface cyclogenesis is likewise
anticipated, with a weak low expected to cross Missouri and approach
Illinois overnight.

Accompanying this system will be a very favorable flow field from a
severe-weather perspective, with low-level flow veering -- and
substantially intensifying -- with height.  However, models continue
to depict very weak CAPE at best, and very likely elevated above a
roughly 100mb-deep surface-based neutral to slightly stable layer.

Given this environment, severe risk appears to be non-zero, but at
this time too minimal to issue a 5%/MRGL risk area.  With that said,
the NAM remains most suggestive that 50 to 100mb
mixed-layer/near-surface-based CAPE could evolve into the mid Ohio
Valley area, where the most favorably sheared environment is
expected.  Should this more aggressive solution appear likely to
verify, and particularly could potential for slightly greater
warm-sector destabilization become apparent, MRGL tornado/wind risk
may be considered.

Elsewhere, a few flashes may occur over coastal Washington later in
the period.

...Goss.. 12/06/2022

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.