Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 06 2022 08:23:46 FOUS30 KWBC 060823 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 AM EST Tue Dec 06 2022 Day 1 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 06 2022 - 12Z Wed Dec 07 2022 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Hurley Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 06 2022 - 12Z Wed Dec 07 2022 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ....North Texas and Eastern Oklahoma eastward into the western Tennessee Valley... Southern stream trough pivoting through the Southwest on Wednesday move across the central-southern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday night. As this occurs, the downstream upper level ridging underneath the broad/deep low centered over north-central Canada will result in upper level confluence and an eventual jet streak across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 2. Increasing southern-stream forcing (deep-layer Qs convergence), coupled with the frontogenetic, entrance-region upper jet forcing from the northern stream (Qn convergence) will make for a favorable environment for deep layer lift across the outlook areas. Both the GEFS and SREF show a relatively quick bout of robust low-mid layer moisture transport, with 8500-700 mb moisture flux anomalies topping out between +3-3.5. PW values are just as anomalous, with a stripe of 1.5-1.7" PWs traversing the outlook areas Wed and Wed night. The progressive nature of the favorable forcing (forward-propagating Corfidi or MBE vectors), along with the relative lack of deep-layer instability (MUCAPEs generally less than 750 J/Kg) will be the primary inhibitors to the flash flood risk. In addition, per the latest NASA SPoRT analysis, 0-100cm soil moisture percentiles are running between 10-30% of normal across much of the outlook area. Nevertheless, per collaboration with WFOs TSA, OUN, LZK, and SGF, given the anomalous degree of deep-layer forcing and moisture, consistent with the 00Z GEFS-based first-guess fields, will maintain a targeted Slight Risk across parts of central-eastern OK into northwest-north central AR and southwest-south central MO, with a surrounding Marginal Risk from North Texas east-northeast across the western TN Valley. Hurley Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-F_n1tiBUaF_WDCyF0i1h9Slmj5RTrB0EazTDYNoZVBa= yXZh7kjwHu1JETMmno30KaVdqhiKXqlnHDxmsAKwJxPBpRI$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-F_n1tiBUaF_WDCyF0i1h9Slmj5RTrB0EazTDYNoZVBa= yXZh7kjwHu1JETMmno30KaVdqhiKXqlnHDxmsAKwY11qmFI$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-F_n1tiBUaF_WDCyF0i1h9Slmj5RTrB0EazTDYNoZVBa= yXZh7kjwHu1JETMmno30KaVdqhiKXqlnHDxmsAKwKFuTPhM$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .