Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 05 2022 19:59:53

ACUS01 KWNS 051959
SWODY1
SPC AC 051958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Mon Dec 05 2022

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
No changes are needed to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 12/05/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Mon Dec 05 2022/

....Discussion...
West-southwesterly lower-level flow will persist through tonight
across a large swath of the southern states, between a deep low over
western Hudson Bay and a subtropical ridge over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, a gradual increase in
low-level warm/moist advection will support an expanding plume of
meager elevated buoyancy from the Lower MS Valley across the TN
Valley and eventually the southern Appalachians. This should support
isolated thunderstorms beginning this evening and persisting
overnight.

Farther west, a couple thunderstorms are possible in the El Paso, TX
vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening where scant but
uncapped surface-based buoyancy is anticipated on the west edge of
the southern-stream moisture plume. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible across the Sacramento Valley and northern CA coast in
association with cool mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates as a
mid-level low near the CA/OR coastal border drifts south through
early Tuesday.

$$

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