Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 05 2022 10:02:21

ACUS48 KWNS 051002
SWOD48
SPC AC 051000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Mon Dec 05 2022

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the global models exhibit a rather substantial amount
of spread -- even early in the period -- with respect to evolution
of features both surface and aloft.

Day 4/Thursday, a short-wave trough is forecast to eject quickly
eastward across the Plains/Midwest.  The GFS continues to depict a
stronger feature -- thus with a similarly faster and substantially
more northward positioning of the surface low.  ECMWF and GFS
ensembles depict surface low positioning more consistent with their
deterministic counterparts -- in other words, the under-dispersive
solutions do not lend any assistance with respect to evolution of
the surface low.

Degree of moisture return in this scenario is a key
detail/component, as it pertains to any possible severe-weather
potential.  As such, with the several-hundred mile north/south
envelope of current solutions with respect to warm-frontal location,
assessment of available moisture/instability across the potential
area of interest over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity cannot be
ascertained with any degree of confidence.

Differences with progression of this feature increase further Day
5/Friday, while generally low-amplitude flow prevails westward
across the remainder of the CONUS, which should persist for a couple
of days.  Late in the period, the ECMWF shows evolution of
eventually high-amplitude troughing over the central U.S., in stark
contrast to a much-less-amplified/more zonal pattern until a Pacific
trough approaches the West Coast at the very end of the period.

Given the model differences described above, predictability -- with
respect to convective potential -- remains low throughout the medium
range.

...Goss.. 12/05/2022

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