Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 05 2022 08:25:21

ACUS03 KWNS 050825
SWODY3
SPC AC 050824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Dec 05 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

....Discussion...
Upper troughing over the Desert Southwest at the start of the period
is progged to cross the southern Rockies, and then approach the
central/southern High Plains overnight.  As this feature advances,
some southward suppression of Gulf of Mexico to Eastern Seaboard
ridging is expected.  Farther north, a second trough -- embedded
within broad cyclonic flow around a north-central Canada vortex --
will progress eastward across Ontario into Quebec, and the adjacent
Great Lakes region through the period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone initially extending from the Lower
Great Lakes vicinity southwestward into Texas is progged to move
eastward across the Northeast and southeastward across the southern
Appalachians/Tennessee and Mid Mississippi Valleys/southern Plains.

Showers and occasional/embedded thunderstorms are expected once
again, from the south-central states to southern New England.
Surface-based/warm-sector convection should remain largely
suppressed, with most convection-supporting ascent attributed to
warm advection/isentropic lift near and to the cool side of the
front.  This -- combined with weak instability -- will likely
preclude any appreciable severe risk.

...Goss.. 12/05/2022

$$

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