Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 05 2022 06:59:20

ACUS02 KWNS 050659
SWODY2
SPC AC 050657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Dec 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe risk is not evident across the U.S. on Tuesday.

....Discussion...
Gradual amplification of the southern-stream upper flow field across
the U.S. is expected Tuesday, as a trough sweeps southeastward
across California and the Great Basin toward the Desert Southwest.
In response, Gulf of Mexico ridging will expand northeastward across
the southeastern U.S./Atlantic Coastal region.  At the surface, a
quasi-stationary baroclinic zone is expected to persist from Texas
northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the
aforementioned surface front, where weak warm advection/isentropic
lift will contribute sufficient ascent for deep convection.  Still,
with very weak instability and what will likely remain a neutral to
slightly stable boundary layer even on the warm side of the frontal
zone, minimal severe risk at best precludes addition of even 5%
probability at this time.

Farther west, showers -- and possibly a few embedded/sporadic
lightning flashes -- may occur over portions of the California/Great
Basin/Desert Southwest region.  However, coverage should remain
below 10% overall, negating inclusion of a thunder area.

...Goss.. 12/05/2022

$$

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