Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 05 2022 05:18:46

ACUS01 KWNS 050518
SWODY1
SPC AC 050517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Dec 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday.

....Discussion...

Low-latitude upper ridge will be nudged east across the western Gulf
of Mexico during the day1 period as a notable short-wave trough digs
southeast along the CA Coast. Well ahead of this feature, a weak,
low-amplitude disturbance will eject across the southern Rockies
into the lower MS Valley before losing its identity during the
latter half of the period over the northern Gulf States.

In response to the lead disturbance, LLJ will increase across east
TX into the TN Valley. Modified Gulf air mass will advance north as
a warm front returns north along with higher PWs. While forecast
buoyancy is expected to remain meager, ample buoyancy should exist
for elevated convection within the warm advection regime.

A flash or two of lightning may also accompany weak convection that
spreads across northern Mexico toward far west TX in response to
this quick-moving feature.

Upstream across portions of northern CA, a pocket of steep low-
mid-level lapse rates will settle south as the primary mid-level jet
sags toward the southern part of the state. Very cold 500mb
temperatures will encourage scattered weak convection along the
cyclonic side of this jet structure. Forecast soundings exhibit
strongly sheared profiles but instability should remain inadequate
for any meaningful threat of severe hail/wind with this activity.

...Darrow/Moore.. 12/05/2022

$$

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