Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 04 2022 16:12:12

ACUS01 KWNS 041612
SWODY1
SPC AC 041610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Dec 04 2022

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
A mid/upper-level low west of the OR/CA border area will drift
towards the coast through early Monday. Bands of ascent associated
with embedded perturbations along with moderately steep lower-level
lapse rates and weak buoyancy will support potential for isolated
thunderstorms from the northern CA coast into the Sacramento Valley
through tonight. Small hail is possible in low-topped convection
along the immediate coast where buoyancy should be relatively
greater, but the bulk of strong mid/upper speed shear will exist
above the buoyancy profile owing to a pronounced inversion between
500-350 mb.

Weak elevated convection will remain possible across southeast AZ
and far southwest NM, within a persistent subtropical moisture
plume. Scant buoyancy might support sporadic lightning flashes.

...Grams/Squitieri.. 12/04/2022

$$

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