Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 04 2022 08:34:21 FOUS30 KWBC 040834 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 AM EST Sun Dec 04 2022 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sun Dec 04 2022 - 12Z Sun Dec 04 2022 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Most of Arizona and New Mexico will remain beneath the right-entrance region of a ~100 knot 250mb jet streak while, simultaneously, an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to funnel rich subtropical moisture overhead. NAEFS climatological percentiles remain exceptionally high over southeast Arizona and much of New Mexico this morning and afternoon with values above the 99th climatological percentiles in some cases. The IVT also remains quite robust as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast and the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico work in tandem to generate IVT values of 400-500 kg/m/s, which is also above the 99th climatological percentile. This remarkable amount of moisture is more than 5 standard deviations above normal, a true anomaly for this time of year. Similar to Saturday, however, instability will continue to be hard to come by, keeping a lid on rainfall rates from becoming too heavy. This will be what largely saves this area from having much more serious flooding concerns, given how incredibly anomalous this amount of atmospheric moisture is for this region. The region has been picking up steady rainfall from Saturday and soil moisture is more saturated than it was entering the weekend. The Marginal Risk remains largely unchanged, save a small northward expansion to account for recent trends in the rainfall noted on radar. While no reports of flash flooding have yet been received, the expectation of continued rainfall in the Marginal Risk area through much of the day today before weakening and shifting south should be enough time for isolated flash flooding to remain a concern. Wegman/Mullinax Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5-zFkUZ2PomYJzFe8h3uPXMYyza-cng6mF2pelxfQk68= iwZvX_ZL64uu9kMAEjUhOIZFBRFmPDoVa7HQJR8hhefoewA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5-zFkUZ2PomYJzFe8h3uPXMYyza-cng6mF2pelxfQk68= iwZvX_ZL64uu9kMAEjUhOIZFBRFmPDoVa7HQJR8h_BHRF_Q$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5-zFkUZ2PomYJzFe8h3uPXMYyza-cng6mF2pelxfQk68= iwZvX_ZL64uu9kMAEjUhOIZFBRFmPDoVa7HQJR8hpMZ_Xkk$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .