Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 04 2022 05:37:08 ACUS01 KWNS 040537 SWODY1 SPC AC 040535 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Dec 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are probable across parts of northwest California and the far southern Oregon coast through tonight. Sporadic lightning flashes are also possible across the Desert Southwest this afternoon. ....Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico/southern CONUS with an upper low off the northern California coast. This regime is expected to evolve slowly over the next 24 hours as the upper wave gradually moves onshore. As this occurs, cold temperatures aloft will overspread deep Pacific moisture sampled by 00 UTC soundings along the West Coast. This thermodynamic regime is already supporting sporadic lightning flashes off the CA coast under the low, and will likely maintain adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms through tonight across northwest CA and perhaps the far southern OR coast. Despite the shallow nature of the convection, strong speed shear within the CAPE-bearing layer may support weakly organized cells capable of sub-severe hail this afternoon; however, the potential for intense, severe convection appears low. Across the Desert Southwest, a persistent stream of Pacific moisture from Baja California will maintain nearly saturated profiles across southern AZ and southwest NM. Weak isentropic ascent combined with muted daytime heating and modest cooling aloft will likely yield sufficient buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes this afternoon and early evening. Slim CAPE profiles and weak ascent will limit the overall intensity and longevity of convection. ...Moore/Guyer.. 12/04/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .