Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 03 2022 19:51:38 ACUS01 KWNS 031951 SWODY1 SPC AC 031949 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Dec 03 2022 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ....20Z Update... General thunder has been cleared from both the Carolina Piedmont and Mississippi Delta region, as buoyancy has diminished across the central Appalachians, with forcing seemingly too weak to support lightning-producing convection along the Gulf Coast. General thunder has also been removed from portions of the Desert Southwest. While a couple more lightning flashes may accompany the leading edge of moisture return into western New Mexico, the latest thinking is that moisture will remain too limited to support sustained thunderstorm development through the remainder of the period. ...Squitieri.. 12/03/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0937 AM CST Sat Dec 03 2022/ ....Discussion... A shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes will quickly move east across the Saint Lawrence Valley. An attendant surface cold front will push east across the Northeast and off the New England coast this evening, with its trailing portion lagging southwestward in the Southeast. Low-level moisture will remain greater over the central Gulf Coast, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken along the slowly advancing portion of the front. Very poor 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4.5-5 C/km evident in 12Z JAN and BMX soundings suggest lingering convection in the interior Deep South will struggle to adequately deepen for charge separation. Farther northeast over the Carolinas vicinity, elevated buoyancy appears to be quite minimal and potential for sporadic flashes within warm advection-driven convection should diminish by mid-afternoon. In the West, isolated thunderstorms may persist into the afternoon with highly elevated convection across southern AZ where scant buoyancy has developed within a modest warm/moist advection regime, downstream of a lower-latitude shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific. Farther north, a more prominent upper low off the OR coast will slowly edge towards the coast through early Sunday. Adequate mid-level cooling might support low-topped thunderstorms overnight along the northern CA coast. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .