Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 03 2022 15:39:37

ACUS01 KWNS 031539
SWODY1
SPC AC 031537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 AM CST Sat Dec 03 2022

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...
A shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes will quickly move east
across the Saint Lawrence Valley. An attendant surface cold front
will push east across the Northeast and off the New England coast
this evening, with its trailing portion lagging southwestward in the
Southeast. Low-level moisture will remain greater over the
central Gulf Coast, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken
along the slowly advancing portion of the front. Very poor 700-500
mb lapse rates of 4.5-5 C/km evident in 12Z JAN and BMX soundings
suggest lingering convection in the interior Deep South will
struggle to adequately deepen for charge separation. Farther
northeast over the Carolinas vicinity, elevated buoyancy appears to
be quite minimal and potential for sporadic flashes within warm
advection-driven convection should diminish by mid-afternoon.

In the West, isolated thunderstorms may persist into the afternoon
with highly elevated convection across southern AZ where scant
buoyancy has developed within a modest warm/moist advection regime,
downstream of a lower-latitude shortwave trough in the eastern
Pacific. Farther north, a more prominent upper low off the OR coast
will slowly edge towards the coast through early Sunday. Adequate
mid-level cooling might support low-topped thunderstorms overnight
along the northern CA coast.

...Grams/Kerr.. 12/03/2022

$$

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