Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 03 2022 10:03:02

ACUS48 KWNS 031002
SWOD48
SPC AC 031001

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CST Sat Dec 03 2022

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Model consistency within latest runs deteriorates steadily through
the medium range, thus casting uncertainty with respect to evolution
of the large-scale pattern beyond the Day 4/Tuesday time frame.

General agreement exists that a cold front will have shifted
southeastward into the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and
westward into the southern Plains by early Tuesday/Day 4.  This
baroclinic zone is then forecast to linger in this general vicinity
through Day 5/Wednesday, as fast southwesterly flow aloft persists
north of an amplifying Gulf of Mexico ridge.  However, details
regarding pattern evolution aloft begin to differ with time,
particularly with a trough progged to shift across California Day 4,
and then eject eastward through the belt of fast southwesterlies.
These differences eventually manifest at the surface as well, with
deviance in the location/evolution of the aforementioned surface
front.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and
to the cool side of -- the cold front Day 4/Tuesday, though
instability will remain minimal and largely elevated.  A stronger
storm or two may evolve over the central/northern Texas vicinity,
where slightly greater instability and favorable shear are
anticipated.  However, with the boundary layer likely to remain
slightly stable even in the pre-frontal warm sector, due to modest
low-level moisture, and with weak lapse rates aloft, the environment
appears likely at this time to remain marginal at best.  This
combined with an apparent lack of any notable feature aloft within
the broad west-southwesterly flow field suggests minimal severe
risk.

...Goss.. 12/03/2022

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