Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 02 2022 05:23:58

ACUS01 KWNS 020523
SWODY1
SPC AC 020522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Thu Dec 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Broad ridging is noted across the central and eastern CONUS in water
vapor imagery ahead of a progressive upper wave, currently passing
through the Great Basin. The strong flow regime over the
central/northern Rockies is yielding robust lee troughing with a
surface cyclone evident in surface observations over the western
Dakotas. This surface low will shift east through the day into the
upper MS River Valley with an attendant cold front sweeping
southeastward across the Plains into the lower MS Valley by early
Saturday.

Modest low-level moisture return within a warm advection regime
ahead of the cold front will support adequate buoyancy and lift for
elevated thunderstorms from the lower MS Valley to the upper OH
Valley late this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Strong
effective shear may support transient organization of any stronger
updrafts, but weak/shallow CAPE profiles will modulate updraft
intensities and limit the overall severe threat.

...Moore/Hart.. 12/02/2022

$$

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