Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 01 2022 12:42:18

ACUS01 KWNS 011242
SWODY1
SPC AC 011240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the flow over the CONUS will become more zonal,
in the wake of a trough now over QC and eastern NY that will move
over Atlantic Canada by 00Z.  The main perturbation after that will
become a strong shortwave trough, now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery across southern BC then southwestward, offshore from the
Pacific Northwest and northwestern CA.  This trough should pivot
onshore through the day, the move inland and weaken overnight,
reaching western MT, ID, and northeastern NV by 12Z tomorrow.
Accompanying cold midlevel conditions and steep low/middle-level
lapse rates, atop the Pacific marine layer, will support potential
for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms near parts of the Northwest
Coast.

At the surface, the cold front related to the eastern mid/upper
trough was analyzed at 11Z across south FL, then west-southwestward
across the central Gulf.  This boundary should decelerate and become
more diffuse through the period.  Still, enough lift may remain on
the boundary, with rich moisture just to its south, to support
isolated thunder moving southwestward from the Gulf Stream across
the Straits of Florida, and adjoining parts of southeastern FL and
the Keys.  Modified 12Z EYW/MFL RAOBs show sufficiently deep MLCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg, before the sampled air mass is displaced too
far south by frontal movement.

...Edwards/Mosier.. 12/01/2022

$$

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