Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 01 2022 08:11:49

FOUS30 KWBC 010811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Thu Dec 01 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 01 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 02 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ALONG
MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

The upper-level trough will move onshore and pass through the
Intermountain West while onshore flow with this system overspreads
the Coastal Ranges inland to portions of the Sierra Nevadas and
southern Cascades. The latest guidance has continued the slight
southward trend with the rains that move onshore and the nearly
perpendicular flow to the terrain will result in a fair amount of
orographically enhanced rainfall. There is a general consensus for
localized rainfall rates reaching 0.50 inch/hour (possibly
exceeding) along the coastline. The HRRR also is maintaining the
lead on some of the highest amounts with rates occasionally
exceeding 0.75 inch/hour; but the HRRR and HREF have areal
averages near or greater than 2 inches in some of the favored
upslope areas. There are several recent burn scars in this part of
the state. Rainfall with hourly rates great than 0.50 inch/hour
will increase the threat for rapid runoff which may lead to debris
flows in the sensitive burn scar locations and other known
vulnerable locations. With colder air filtering into the Pacific
Northwest and northern California the snow levels will be falling
thus reducing the threat for excessive rainfall. The northern
portion of the inherited Marginal Risk area was trimmed down once
again due to the southward shift over central and southern coastal
California.

Campbell


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-RSbqgoZE6HOsuP-RTeeQH76b9tN1LlXeK3ahPDxX32G=
qhVajTLV9EI2uoGARMZuDQHv88mfGBqHwv8KhdHtmY7tlzk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-RSbqgoZE6HOsuP-RTeeQH76b9tN1LlXeK3ahPDxX32G=
qhVajTLV9EI2uoGARMZuDQHv88mfGBqHwv8KhdHtYOIYaGU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-RSbqgoZE6HOsuP-RTeeQH76b9tN1LlXeK3ahPDxX32G=
qhVajTLV9EI2uoGARMZuDQHv88mfGBqHwv8KhdHtGAGY9ts$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.