Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 12:55:11 ACUS01 KWNS 301255 SWODY1 SPC AC 301253 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of southwestern Georgia, extreme southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, for a few more hours. ....Synopsis... A progressive synoptic pattern will continue in mid/upper levels, with several well-developed troughs orbiting a slow-moving cyclone located over the Canadian Arctic Islands. The most important of those troughs for this outlook currently extends from a 500-mb low over northern ON (near the MN border) across WI/IL to the Mid-South. The mid/upper-level low should move to northeastern ON near James Bay by 00Z, with trough southward over the central Appalachians. By 12Z, the low should move east of James Bay to adjoining parts of QC, with trough across western New England to the coastal NJ/Delmarva region. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an occluded front extended from a low over northern ON across southwestern ON and OH, becoming a cold front over eastern parts of KY/TN, northern AL, southern MS, and southern LA. The front will sweep across the East through the period, moving offshore all the East Coast but south FL by 12z tomorrow. A marine/warm front was drawn from extreme southeastern AL southward across the central Fl Panhandle to the northeastern Gulf, and should drift eastward before being overtaken by a line of convection discussed below. ....Southeast... A southwest/northeast-aligned band of thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the FL Panhandle, extreme southeastern AL and southwestern/south-central GA through the forenoon hours. Isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two remain possible in a rapidly narrowing maritime/tropical air mass located west of the marine front. The eastern activity will become elevated as it moves over more-stable boundary-layer air east of the marine front across GA and the central/eastern FL Panhandle. The air mass east of the boundary -- with stable layers at multiple tropospheric levels -- was well-sampled by the 12Z TLH RAOB, and stabilizes even more in low levels with inland extent. See SPC tornado watch 577 and related mesoscale discussions for latest near-term guidance. Convective organization and overall severe potential should decrease markedly after midday, as the LLJ retreats well NE of the area, and low-level shear/convergence each weaken substantially. ....Mid-Atlantic/New England... The approaching trough aloft will lead to substantial height falls and strengthening deep-layer flow across this region during the daylight hours. With surface temperatures remaining in the 40s to 50s, and poor midlevel lapse rates, little or no boundary layer instability nor low/middle-level CAPE should develop ahead of the front. Still, given the available low-level moisture and intense convergence expected along the front, a strongly forced, low-topped band of rain and embedded showers with no lightning (hence, lack of general-thunderstorm outlook), may move across the region. A few convective-gust enhancements to already strong ambient gradient flow may occur, but potential for distinctly severe convection still appears too low and conditional for an outlook. ...Edwards/Mosier.. 11/30/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .