Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 09:52:42

ACUS48 KWNS 300952
SWOD48
SPC AC 300951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Northeast on
Saturday as zonal flow develops across much of the central and
eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
southeastward through the Southeast and Carolinas. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s in the lower
Mississippi Valley could be enough for a marginal severe threat on
Saturday afternoon. Marginally severe wind gusts could also occur
across southern New England around midday on Saturday.

Zonal flow is forecast to continue across much of central and
eastern U.S. on Sunday. A moist airmass should be located along the
Gulf Coast from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to the Florida
Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorm development could occur within this
moist airmass Sunday and Sunday night. But the chance for severe
would be marginal due to the limited amount of instability.

....Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
On Monday, mid-level flow is forecast to turn west-southwesterly
from the Desert Southwest to the Eastern Seaboard. In response,
moisture return is expected from the southern Plains into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Warm-advection-related thunderstorms will be
possible along a corridor of maximized low-level flow from the
Arklatex into the upper Ohio Valley. The thinking is that the brunt
of this activity should be during the overnight, when convection
will likely be elevated. For this reason, any severe threat would
likely be isolated and marginal.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, and upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the central and eastern U.S., as an
associated front advances southeastward into the southeastern U.S.
Thunderstorm development will be possible each day along and ahead
of this front. Although surface dewpoints could be in the 60s F
ahead of sections of the front, instability should remain weak. Due
to this reason, any severe threat is expected to remain isolated.

Although a low-end severe potential appears likely to persist
throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, the distribution and magnitude of
instability will keep predictability relatively low.

...Broyles.. 11/30/2022

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