Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 07:54:30 FOUS30 KWBC 300754 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 253 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 30 2022 - 12Z Thu Dec 01 2022 ....THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE COAST OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA... ....Southeast... A broad area of thunderstorms with an embedded squall line have maintained strength and momentum during the overnight hours and continue to trek across the Gulf states and into portions of Southeast and Tennessee Valley this morning. The whole area of convection is expected to shift eastward as the warm front lifts up the eastern Tennessee Valley/Central Appalachians and the cold front sweeps through the Southeast. These storms should be fairly fast moving by this point, using up the last of the instability from Tuesday. Recent rains including the previous day's amount have left parts of the Southeast with nearly saturated soils. Additional rains during this period will keep an elevated threat for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. The forcing and instability diminish through the day, so the Marginal Risk is largely for remaining thunderstorms Wednesday morning. ....West Coast... An approaching low pressure system is expected to usher in 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts probable, along the west coast of Oregon and northern California and inland to the Cascades. The latest guidance continues to show the highest QPF focusing over southwest Oregon and northwest California as the low sinks southward near the coast. Additionally, the CAMs are suggesting very isolated maxes of 5 to 6.5 inches possible in the highest terrain. Due to the speed of the front and cold air punching in from the north, snow levels will plummet over Oregon. This will reduce the degree of possible flooding concerns. However, the primary area of rainfall will stay ahead of any falling snow levels but hourly rainfall rates may occasionally approach (or even exceed) 0.5-0.75"/hr.; which is enough to be problematic in sensitive prone areas. The Marginal Risk that was already in effect had minor adjustments made to reflect the latest guidance trends and WPC WPF. Campbell Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6foNLabmjpPT4nBZ1lffnO5VKNI3-cSOugmlUx88Xx7m= OeNR3PiM52RLrg0LHvDboyc1iVyot6MG-lAZ8WdzvHiSCyY$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6foNLabmjpPT4nBZ1lffnO5VKNI3-cSOugmlUx88Xx7m= OeNR3PiM52RLrg0LHvDboyc1iVyot6MG-lAZ8WdzemKuaAI$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6foNLabmjpPT4nBZ1lffnO5VKNI3-cSOugmlUx88Xx7m= OeNR3PiM52RLrg0LHvDboyc1iVyot6MG-lAZ8WdzhuV-WKg$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .