Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 07:37:00

AWUS01 KWNH 300736
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Areas affected...southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama,
portions of southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300728Z - 301328Z

Summary...Deepening convection and localized training of cells
could pose an isolated flash flood risk through 13Z.

Discussion...Convection continues across a broad, weakly capped
warm sector from south-central Louisiana east-northeastward into
southeastern Mississippi.  The deepening convection noted along
the general axis from Lafayette to Hattiesburg is likely tied to
increased low-level convergence due to veering low-level flow
across western Louisiana.  Though storm motions remain fairly
quick due to strong flow aloft (around 40-50 knots), the
orientation of the convection (generally parallel to flow aloft),
abundant moisture (1.8 inch PW values), and strong instability
(~3000 J/kg SBCAPE) continued to promote not only efficient
rainfall beneath the storms while promoting 1+ inch/hr rainfall
rates.  FFG thresholds generally exceed these rain rates (around
2-3 inches/hr areawide), suggesting a limited flash flood risk in
the short term.

Concern exists, however, that as storms continue to mature, rain
rates may locally exceed FFG thresholds at times - particularly
due to the training nature of a few of the cells (i.e., recent
MRMS observations near McComb).  As localized rain rates increase,
low-lying and/or urbanized areas could experience a flash flood
risk for the next few hours based on convective trends.  This
threat may be modulated by upscale growth of any cells into
clusters, with any continued back-building also resulting in a
localized flash flood risk.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8QLWiuz7hbIdfrB3aTi219bRyY_qgf7vUxJ5RcB-rJKIWuVk-X64bJrcepARP8h1c3s_=
cSyV3XRwQcirOL8OipvaeB0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32468771 32468717 31998701 31148779 30258967=20
            30049114 29919193 30339207 31899041 32228909=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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